One morning in August, I awoke, just as others around the world, to discover that Kuwait had vanished as a country. The immediate reaction of many was “how could we have predicted the invasion?” or “there goes the peace dividend.” Our collective hindsight tells us now that through careful analysis better understanding could have led us to conjecture the event if only we had tried—in other words, we could have avoided a lot of hand-wringing. Nevertheless, that unfortunate development combined with the “unpredictability” of dramatic events in Eastern Europe and China last year inspires reflection on change, prediction, and the role of education.
Change is an element central to prediction. Some people gainsay change, complaining that things are worsening or not what they used to be. One of the few certainties about the future, however, is continued, rapid change as shown by the German unification and the release of Nelson Mandela. Of course, this century has been fraught with changes that have brought tremendous difficulty to the whole human race and environment—wars, famine, disease, degradation. But it has also brought wonderful, life-enhancing advances in health care, increased wealth for many nations, and the resilience of democratic institutions and ideals. Change and difference give meaning to life, and the changes of this century have highlighted some of the best and worst of human endeavors.
Some people study and comment on the future to prepare for what might happen or to warn others to accept change more readily. Other people try to predict just to be able to say, “I told you so,” or to assert smugly, “If only you had listened to me, things wouldn’t have turned out that way.” Such attitudes obviously have negative implications for collaborating to solve foreseeable problems.
But there are two often overlooked reasons for prediction: to identify risks and opportunities—entrepreneurial foresight—and to avoid or lessen the effects of potential problems. Financial analysts use tools of prediction such as market data trends to ascertain the consequences of events on business prospects, reason one. Regarding the second reason, many authors over the years such as Huxley when he wrote Brave New World, and Orwell who wrote 1984 and Animal Farm have tried to ward off “evil” futures. Similarly in education, a number of people have expressed the view that “if public education is still around in the twenty-first century, they’ll be quite surprised.” Naturally, one could interpret this comment at face value; but by saying this the opinionators are probably intending to avert a possible demise or the deterioration of public schools.
To serve us better, authors and researchers who do their work well can offer meaningful insights on the future by employing more advanced methods of analyzing demographics, the effects of public policy, and developments in public health, science, and technology. They may thus be able to identify more precisely near-term dangers and opportunities, suggest new approaches, assist more wisely decision making, and help to prevent unwanted outcomes.
The world is shrinking as technology brings heretofore unheard of participation of ordinary citizens in world affairs. People must acquire new skills and knowledge to be able to cope with this constantly evolving situation.
Accordingly, the education system should be restructured to provide the ability to comprehend and project more effectively the consequences of change—for example, how society can deal with the shifting political sands of the Middle East or the growing ecological crisis throughout the world. In addition, instruction should create a mind-set for change and produce self-motivated problem solvers to make the human and natural environment livable in a highly competitive, multicultural world. In short, education must provide knowledgeable foresight—not necessarily to criticize change, but to evaluate and direct it for the benefit of the human race. Our success as a globally interdependent society depends on how we adapt to the changes that the future offers.
– Educational Horizons 69(1) Fall 1990
© 1990, Kenneth Koziol. All rights reserved.