Middle East – KensView

Kurdistan

The Kurds will have a very difficult time achieving and maintaining a viable state because the area they inhabit contains most of the region’s lakes and is the source of its major rivers, such as the Tigris and Euphrates. Their neighbors will probably not cede control.

Shifting Sands, Change, and Prediction

One morning in August, I awoke, just as others around the world, to discover that Kuwait had vanished as a country. The immediate reaction of many was “how could we have predicted the invasion?” or “there goes the peace dividend.” Our collective hindsight tells us now that through careful analysis better understanding could have led us to conjecture the event if only we had tried—in other words, we could have avoided a lot of hand-wringing. Nevertheless, that unfortunate development combined with the “unpredictability” of dramatic events in Eastern Europe and China last year inspires reflection on change, prediction, and the role of education.

Change is an element central to prediction. Some people gainsay change, complaining that things are worsening or not what they used to be. One of the few certainties about the future, however, is continued, rapid change as shown by the German unification and the release of Nelson Mandela. Of course, this century has been fraught with changes that have brought tremendous difficulty to the whole human race and environment—wars, famine, disease, degradation. But it has also brought wonderful, life-enhancing advances in health care, increased wealth for many nations, and the resilience of democratic institutions and ideals. Change and difference give meaning to life, and the changes of this century have highlighted some of the best and worst of human endeavors.

Some people study and comment on the future to prepare for what might happen or to warn others to accept change more readily. Other people try to predict just to be able to say, “I told you so,” or to assert smugly, “If only you had listened to me, things wouldn’t have turned out that way.” Such attitudes obviously have negative implications for collaborating to solve foreseeable problems.

But there are two often overlooked reasons for prediction: to identify risks and opportunities—entrepreneurial foresight—and to avoid or lessen the effects of potential problems. Financial analysts use tools of prediction such as market data trends to ascertain the consequences of events on business prospects, reason one. Regarding the second reason, many authors over the years such as Huxley when he wrote Brave New World, and Orwell who wrote 1984 and Animal Farm have tried to ward off “evil” futures. Similarly in education, a number of people have expressed the view that “if public education is still around in the twenty-first century, they’ll be quite surprised.” Naturally, one could interpret this comment at face value; but by saying this the opinionators are probably intending to avert a possible demise or the deterioration of public schools.

To serve us better, authors and researchers who do their work well can offer meaningful insights on the future by employing more advanced methods of analyzing demographics, the effects of public policy, and developments in public health, science, and technology. They may thus be able to identify more precisely near-term dangers and opportunities, suggest new approaches, assist more wisely decision making, and help to prevent unwanted outcomes.

The world is shrinking as technology brings heretofore unheard of participation of ordinary citizens in world affairs. People must acquire new skills and knowledge to be able to cope with this constantly evolving situation.

Accordingly, the education system should be restructured to provide the ability to comprehend and project more effectively the consequences of change—for example, how society can deal with the shifting political sands of the Middle East or the growing ecological crisis throughout the world. In addition, instruction should create a mind-set for change and produce self-motivated problem solvers to make the human and natural environment livable in a highly competitive, multicultural world. In short, education must provide knowledgeable foresight—not necessarily to criticize change, but to evaluate and direct it for the benefit of the human race. Our success as a globally interdependent society depends on how we adapt to the changes that the future offers.

– Educational Horizons 69(1) Fall 1990

Old City

To stroll the walls of the Old City
is to walk a line surrounding history.
Outside is modern life, bustling streets
lined with hotels and tourist shops.
Inside is rich tradition, much older
and long the vortex of many faiths.
Many pilgrims fill the lanes to visit
the temples, mosques, and churches.
Tiny gardens behind homes of stone
are shaded by ancient trees.
Their branches reach out and, in some places,
cover the city walls like curtains.
Narrow lanes open into wider streets
with busy shops and open stalls.
Men sit sipping coffee,
fingering their prayer beads or just talking.
Women crouch in the shade of inner courtyards,
sorting beans and legumes—and talking.
How is it that some call this place,
the world’s biggest thorn in the side?

Jawdat

I met Jawdat just as I entered
by way of the Damascus Gate.
“Welcome to Jerusalem, the Holy City.
Are you looking for a guide?” he asked.
A quick glance discomfited me,
For he looked no older than I myself.
But he expertly continued,
“This Gate is The Center of the World.
It is an excellent type of Islamic building,
and do you know what its sign means?
There is no God but God
and Muhammed is His Prophet.”
What convenient luck for me, I thought,
as he offered to guide me for the next few days.
“There is the immovable ladder of
the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.
Someone put it against that wall, and
no one dares disturb the status quo.”
“Make sure you cover your elbows
when tucking prayers in the Wailing Wall.”
“Remember remove shoes in al-Aqsa,
so you can see the wonderful decorations.”
He offered little personal insights
To spice up our series of walks.
“Let me treat you to some Turkish coffee
along with a delicious slice of kanafa.”
“The sabbath, the busiest day of the week, is
when Arabs and Israeli teens eye the miniskirts.”
And “Someday I will go to your country
to study and get an American wife.” Also,
“My family is originally from Jaffa
but was thrown out the Day of the Nakba.”
Once when we dined late after curfew,
he vanished after helping me enter my hostel.
For four days there was no sign of him,
though I enquired from shop to shop.
At the market there was a wary silence
until my last day his familiar figure re-emerged.
Jawdat approached and pulled up his shirt
to show me the IDF’s purple marks.

Munich

Many headed to Munich,
hoping for bier-soaked games;
but Black September had other plans
to deliver a Mighty fist.

Wearing tracksuits and toting gym bags
packed with grenades and AKMs,
they entered the unwary apartment
where Israeli athletes were asleep.

Slaying two and taking nine
to trade for their Arab brothers
with an allahu akbar,
they demanded a flight to Cairo.

As copters were encircling,
snipers unguided and untrained
sprang a reckless ambush,
the terrorists returning fire.

A rescue turned bloodbath,
nine and more were lost
in smoke, gunfire, and explosion,
three captors taken alive.

But, vilely these were later let go,
exchanged for Lufthansa Flight 615
so they could receive “hero’s welcome”
as they landed in Tripoli.